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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still